Manhattan tribe’s opportunity cost

Posted by Marc Hodak on May 4, 2007 under History | 3 Comments to Read

This day in 1626, Peter Minuit landed on this rocky island at the mouth of the Hudson. As everyone has been taught in school, the natives sold Manhattan to Minuit for $24 of beads and trinkets.

Rubes or victims? The $24 sale price has been used, in turn, to show how naive the natives were, or how badly the Europeans abused the natives in land transactions. Very likely, neither view is warranted. While it’s true that native Indians did not have the same view of property rights as the Dutch, there is plenty of evidence that they did trade in similar rights. According to one scholar, the rubes, in this case, were not the Indians, but the Dutch. You see, Minuit bought Manhattan from the Canarsee tribe–a Lenape tribe from Brooklyn. The Canarsee didn’t yet have a bridge to sell Minuit, so they made do instead with selling the Dutch an island they did not own. The tribe that was really screwed, here, were the Weckquaesgeeks, an Algonquin tribe that hunted the island, but favored the more forested, northern parts.

A good deal? The sale price and centuries that have passed are often used to illustrate the power of compound interest. The $24 figure itself is rather dated–it was calculated in the 1840s based on the value of cloth, trinkets, hatchets, etc. then estimated at 60 guilders. The translation of 17th century Dutch guilders to modern US currency would equate to roughly $600–still quite a bargain. The finance textbooks tells us that if the Lenape Indians had invested that sum at a rate approximating the 6-7% average real return on investment of American assets over that 350+ year period, that they could easily buy back all of Manhattan–land and buildings–with their profits.

Of course, the natives, even if they had been disposed to such an investment, had no financial markets available to provide such an opportunity. That would have to await the development of the very properties they had just sold.

  • Rich Rostrom said,

    “they could easily buy back all of Manhattan”

    That’s often asserted, but it isn’t true.

    7% APR compounded for 281 years ~= 181 million

    181 million x $600 = $108.6 billion.

    Does anyone believe that all of Manhattan could be had for that price?

    You’re wrong.

    In 2000, there were 820,000 housing units in Manhattan, of which 20% (164,000) were owner-occupied. The median value of those units was $1 million (almost exactly). Therefore, half (82,000) were worth at least $1 million each, which is a minimum of $82 billion. And of course many were priced well above $1 million, and the other 82,000 housing units were worth something, and the 656,000 rental units were worth something, and all the commercial property was worth something. $500 billion all up? And that was seven years ago.

  • M. Hodak said,

    Rich,

    Thanks for the math check, but I think you’re missing another 100 years of compounding.

  • Shakespeare's Fool said,

    Rich Rostrom,
    How is it I was unaware that the houses were all there when the island was sold in 1626?
    John