The Onion, For Real

Posted by Marc Hodak on July 8, 2008 under Economics | Read the First Comment

Congress is big on legislating based on speculation, particularly against speculators. Academics almost universally agree that speculation generally increases liquidity, and therefore decreases volatility in markets. But populist politicians continue to ignore that consensus, more recently with accusations that speculators are responsible for the recent volatility in oil prices. In this case “volatility” is read as “increase” since we never hear concern about sudden, significant decreases in commodity prices, except for land.

Fortune writer John Birger has done some real journalism rooting around to find this story about onion speculation: There isn’t any. It was banned in 1958 by a law pushed by a young Michigan congressman, Gerald Ford.

And yet even with no traders to blame, the volatility in onion prices makes the swings in oil and corn look tame, reinforcing academics’ belief that futures trading diminishes extreme price swings.

We hate it when we’re right. Actually, we just hate it when we’re right an no one is listening.

HT: Alex T.