The Democratic quandary

Posted by Marc Hodak on May 26, 2008 under Unintended consequences | Comments are off for this article

Clinton or Obama? Obama has the nomination in his pocket; even Hillary knows it. Still, the super-delegates must make their choices known, and it appears that they will be compelled to choose the most popular candidate of their party–Obama–even if he is less likely to prevail in November.

Hillary, of course, has been arguing all along that she is more electable than Obama against McCain. The evidence shows that she is right: According to polls tracked by the non-partisan electoralvote.com, Obama is barely ahead of McCain, and neither has enough to claim an electoral majority. Hillary Clinton versus McCain is a lock. She owns every major state with over 15 electoral votes except Texas. She could lose every toss-up state and still win the presidency.

One can imagine the agony it must be for Hillary to know this, and yet face an almost certain upcoming defeat in her party’s primary. What I wonder, though, is how her party’s leaders feel about this? They must know the numbers, too, and yet have their hands tied. Many of them are probably telling themselves, “Screw it. Obama will win, too.” The Iowa Electronic Market is on their side, for now. But that market is thin, and doesn’t necessarily reflect the best bet for the Dems.

My choice remains: