{"id":311,"date":"2008-09-17T17:14:17","date_gmt":"2008-09-18T01:14:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/hodakvalue.com\/blog\/?p=311"},"modified":"2008-09-17T17:14:17","modified_gmt":"2008-09-18T01:14:17","slug":"a-lost-decade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/hodakvalue.com\/blog\/a-lost-decade\/","title":{"rendered":"A lost decade"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The next bar on this chart will be below 0.00%, i.e., negative returns:<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/allfinancialmatters.com\/Graphics\/S&#038;P50010-YearTotalChartBig.GIF\"height=\"300\" width=\"450\" border=\"0\"><\/p>\n<p>Yep, if you had invested in the S&#038;P 500 at an average cost of that index over the course of 1998&#8211;a year which included the Asian meltdown&#8211;the <a href=\"http:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/echarts?s=^GSPC#chart6:symbol=^gspc;range=19980701,20080916;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on\">roller coaster ride<\/a> you would have been on since then&#8211;with two years and 32 percent in gains left in the dot com boom, followed by the bust, followed by the strong gains until last year before this credit crunch&#8211;would have gotten you right back where you started.<\/p>\n<p>Which is about 35 percent worse off than if you had left that money in a passbook savings account.  Which represents very negative real returns.<\/p>\n<p>I know the mantra is &#8220;it always comes back,&#8221; and I&#8217;m still committed to the market for my long-term funds because I believe there is a risk premium for holding equity.  It&#8217;s times like these that create that premium, by reminding us exactly what the risk looks like.  Something to keep in mind when I begin to near retirement.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The next bar on this chart will be below 0.00%, i.e., negative returns: Yep, if you had invested in the S&#038;P 500 at an average cost of that index over the course of 1998&#8211;a year which included the Asian meltdown&#8211;the roller coaster ride you would have been on since then&#8211;with two years and 32 percent [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-311","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/hodakvalue.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/311","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/hodakvalue.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/hodakvalue.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/hodakvalue.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/hodakvalue.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=311"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/hodakvalue.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/311\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/hodakvalue.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=311"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/hodakvalue.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=311"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/hodakvalue.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=311"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}